5 Replies Latest reply on Oct 8, 2018 2:39 PM by Donald Bennett

    Seeking Method to Project or Forecast a Value

    Donald Bennett

      In reviewing average event duration (such as a service call), I noticed that the most recent event average duration appears to be falling; it appears a downward trend in event time reduction is occurring.

       

      Event 1.JPG

       

      However, only events that have been completed are displayed since the event time is a calculated field between the event create date and the event complete date.  Events that are not complete are not plotted.  The more difficult an event, the longer it takes to close.  As such, as time goes on, more events with LONGER event durations will show up on the graph and level out the trend.  A review of events not yet completed shows a rise in the number of incomplete events beginning in Q4 2015 and continuing to a crossover point in Q2 2018 where more events remain open than have been closed.

       

      Event 2.JPG

       

      How can I project/forecast the event duration for the, as of yet, incomplete events to ensure the viewer does not incorrectly assume the process is improving and event durations are declining in the past few years?  Average event duration of all completed events prior to the end of Q4 2015 is 202.9 days.  Average duration of all completed events in data set is 167.4 days.