Thank you - I've looked in forecasting that you suggested and here's my challenge(s):
1) The leads that I generate this week will "convert" over the course the next several weeks (therefore, I have two date ranges that I use - the lead added date and the lead converted (sales) date).
2) From what I can tell from forecasting - it bases the future based on the past with the ability to remove the most recent dates that may not be mature (good). However, I'm not seeing where you can base a forecast on a calculation. Meaning - the forecast of sales is directly related to the number of leads. Unless I'm missing something - I can forecast sales, but that forecast is based on the historical sales - not the number of leads generated to hit those sales. Meaning - if I generate 1,000 leads per week (based on the earlier example), I can expect 300 sales. HOwever, those 300 sales aren't realized in total until 10 weeks (fully mature - roughly 90% of all sales accumulate within 10 weeks - distributed within the weeks).
3) therefore, unless I'm missing something - the basic forecasting in Tableau won't help. I need to apply the "mature" conversion of leads to sales (in this example, 30%) for the leads that occur in a given week. Then, distribute those 300 sales across the next 10 weeks utilizing a distribution curve identified in the historical conversion & distribution rates for the upcoming 10 weeks. Since any given week for sales is based on previous 10 weeks lead volumes, their respective 'maturity' conversion rate, and subsequent distribution curves, I need to see what is originating the SALES for this week (the breakout/sum total of the previous 10 weeks); and that needs to be a moving total. I also need to see the leads generated in a given week - and how the sales will project over the next 10 weeks from that original lead week.
Make sense? Thank you for your reply - I appreciate it.
PS - the leads that I generate in any given week are based on how much is spent in marketing - and therefore, that's a component as well. If I cut my spending in half - then my leads for that week would be cut - and the forecasted sales would also decrease. If I merely forecasted on previous sales (assuming a constant level of spend), i don't believe the forecast would take into account the reduced spend?