0 Replies Latest reply on Nov 7, 2013 12:16 PM by JD Mathewson

    Red Sox, Cardinals World Series Probability Chart

    JD Mathewson

      Using play-by-play data from the amazing FanGraphs.com, and my own World Series projections, I developed a Tableau Public chart that retroactively measures the chances of the Cardinals and Red Sox winning the 2013 World Series following every individual play.

       

      Some insights:

      1. David Ortiz was indeed the MVP (with a whopping 0.368 WSPA)
      2. But Lester made a pretty compelling case (0.223 WSPA)
      3. Johnny Gomes' Game Four dinger was the biggest play and the turning point (0.165 WSPA)
      4. Molina was the Cardinal who contributed the most (0.112 WSPA)
      5. The Sox overcame losing nearly 1/4 of their World Series chances when Breslow was on the mound (-0.254 WSPA).

       

      World Series Probability Added: Papi Deservedly WS MVP | Rational Pastime