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I'm uncertain of its validity here but you could implement a Tableau-only (so no R or Python for any of these solutions) Student's T-Test to calculate the Z-Score or Bayesian methodology to test the probability of a positive or negative outcome of a hypothesis, both of which I have implemented (with a little help from my data-science team).
I shall speak to the data-science team on Monday for their ideas for this; the only caveat (which I know you are more than capable of) is that this is more "old(er)-school" Tableau - Lookups and Windowing
I should add here, despite having a huge Tableau deployment, and having multiple R and Python servers, the Tableau admin team have been slow to spin-up either of these for Tableau functions resulting in my needing to re-build these simple calculations entirely in Tableau (and at the time of development, in v8.1)
Thanks Steve - interested in what the data team have to say. Having done some research, I'm trying logistical regression via the XLSTAT plugin for Excel, and looking at Chi-Squared and p values - seems to be getting somewhere.
I actually didn't think of this, I too am using chi-square with p-values for measuring a different part of the same tools although they need to go through the same z-score plug to apply the final % probability.
Having discussed with some of the data scientists, they too have suggested logistical regression so looks like you are on the right lines there